Semestral Journal of Centro Argentino de Meteorólogos, which is published  since 1970 and serves on the Core of Argentine Scientific Journals since 2005. Meteorologica publishes original papers in the field of atmospheric sciences and oceanography.

Registration number of intellectual property: RL-2018-42420861-APN-DNDA#MJ

ISSN 1850-468X

Volume 43 – Nº2 MORE NOTES FROM THIS ISSUE

STATISTICAL MODELING FOR THE MONTHLY STREAMFLOW IN THE SOUTH OF THE LA PLATA BASIN

Melanie Meis y María Paula Llano

Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos
Aires, Argentina
CONICET

Manuscript received on 21st June 2017, in final form on 3th November 2017

ABSTRACT

Hydrological studies in the La Plata basin are important as it is a source capable of providing water to several countries in South America, a large navigable network and rich in mineral resources. However, the necessity of these studies is highlighted by the frequent floods that occur in it. In this work, it is proposed to employ the statistical modelling through the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models, with the aim to represent and forecast the time series for monthly streamflow in different stations in the La Plata Basin. Proper models were proposed for the monthly streamflow time series in Timbúes station (Paraná River) for five subtemporal periods of twenty years from 1913 to 2012. Moreover, for Corrientes, Timbúes and Paso de los Libres stations, a forecast for 32 months (January/2013-August/2015) was carried out taking into consideration the last subperiod, 1993-2012. The validation of the models was considered. Finally, forecast with different future scenarios were done in Corrientes station, and a comparison with the gauged values was included. In this way, it was pretended to find a statistical models in order to contribute to the monitoring of the monthly discharge in the La Plata Basin with the objective to mitigate negative impacts in the region