EXPERIMENTAL HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST SYSTEM WITH THE BRAMS MODEL
Cynthia Matsudo, Yanina Garca Skabar, Lorena Ferreira, Juan Ruiz, Paola Salio, Luciano Vidal, Matilde Nicolini
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Facultad de Agronomía, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
UMI-Instituto Franco Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océeanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Manuscript received on 7 November 2012, in final form on 22 March 2013
This work presents the characteristics of a high-resolution numerical forecast system using the BRAMS model version 4.2 designed for the forecast of storms in the Pampa region which is processed on daily basis at the National Meteorological Service of Argentina (NMS). The forecast system is described by showing a case study and a first evaluation of its quality. In particular, the results of rainfall forecasts are presented with an operational verification scheme which implies the application of adequate methodologies for high-resolution forecasts. We discuss the availability of remote sensing data with higher spatial and temporal resolutions than the ones usually used. Finally, the results of rainfall probabilistic forecasts are shown and we examine the advantages of this tool as a value-added product giving the incorporation of the uncertainty associated to the numerical simulations of the atmosphere.