LONG TERM-TRENDS IN RAINFALL OVER TUCUMAN UNDER THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Flavia M. Bazzano, Teresita Heredia, Ana G. Elías, César M. Lamelas y Jorge Forciniti
Laboratorio de Construcciones Hidráulicas, FACEyT, UNT
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, CONICET
Laboratorio de Física de la Atmósfera, Dpto. de Física, FACEyT, UNT
Estación Experimental Agroindustrial Obispo Colombres
Manuscript received on 19th October 2017, in its final form on 22nd April 2018
The empirical evidence, as well as the simulations, indicates that the global warming would induce an increase in the humidity of the air and in the intensity of precipitations in some regions of the planet. Such is the forecast for the province of Tucumán in the area within latitudes 26.1 o S and 27.8 o S and longitudes 64.8 o W and 66.0 o W, located in an intermediate geographical region between tropical and subtropical. From the daily rainfall records of 20 stations in Tucuman, trends in total annual precipitation, maximum daily and number of days with precipitation greater than the 95th percentile were analyzed. Significant negative trends predominat over a few positive ones obtained in the region, both in the annual totals and in the number of intense episodes in the period 1973 to 2015. However, in the stations with longer periods prevail significant positive trends. On the other hand, in the annual daily maximum series prevail non-significant trends. The statistical analysis of the historical series is an important tool that collaborates in the decision making to mitigate the effects of climate change in the region.